Corrye’s 2023 Oscar Picks!
Ahhh it’s that time of year again! Time for the only awards show I ever watch because it’s the only one I actually care about: The Academy Awards. Oscar night is this Sunday, March 12th and for me, it can’t come fast enough. And look I know that the Oscars are just Hollywood rewarding itself. I completely lost faith when Shakespeare in Love won over Saving Private Ryan twenty-four years ago.
I can’t help but love the pageantry, the speeches, the musical performances (“Naatu Naatu” is going to be FIRE), the surprises, and even the “In Memoriam” segment. And like every year, it is time to gift you all with my Oscar picks. For the purpose of brevity, I will be covering only the Big Six (Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Picture). Furthermore, I will be providing who I think SHOULD win and who I think WILL win. Also please note that I have seen every single nominated performance and picture in each category so I’m not blindly picking. So, without further ado…
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett for Black Panther
Hong Chau for The Whale
Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO SHOULD WIN: Hong Chau for The Whale
This category is the toughest it’s been in years. To the point that pick a day, and I may have a different answer depending on my mood. Yet if you had to pin me down, I would say Hong Chau gave the best performance of the bunch. Her nuanced role as Liz really stood out even amidst the mesmerizing performance of Brendan Fraser. Liz is a complex person, capable of deep compassion but also cold and indifferent at times. There are multiple layers to Liz and Hong Chau truly brought those nuances to life.
WHO WILL WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once
I’m basing this one solely on gut instinct because honestly, this category is a wildcard. Two weeks ago I would have said Angela Bassett had this one wrapped up until Curtis took home the SAG award. Granted the Academy and SAG are two different bodies, but the SAG results often match up with the Oscar results. This could end up being a legacy win with Curtis having been in the industry for nearly five decades. While her performance is strong, her Oscar nominee counterpart Stephanie Hsu arguably gave the better performance. This category is by no means preordained but I have the distinct feeling Curtis will be the one taking home gold Sunday night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway
Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO SHOULD WIN AND WHO WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is one of two categories where you can take this to the bank, it’s a done deal, everyone else is playing for second—pick your favorite cliché. Not only is Quan’s story great (a beloved childhood actor out of acting for decades returns to greatness) but he far and away gives the best performance. Due to the multiverse nature of the movie, Quan had to embody multiple versions of Waymond Wang each with its own unique flair and distinctiveness and he pulled it off. The primary Waymond is also someone very relatable and empathetic. This is a feel-good Hollywood story that is going to have a happy ending.
Cate Blanchett for Tar
Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie
Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans
Ana De Armas for Blonde
Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett for Tar
Cate Blanchett is essentially the Meryl Streep of this generation. Whether it’s Queen Elizabeth I, Katherine Hepburn, Galadriel, or Bob Dylan, she just disappears into a role. Blanchett’s performance in Tar is nothing short of mesmerizing. Her Lydia Tar is a monster—a talented, nuanced, fascinating monster. I couldn’t take my eyes off the screen. In a career that’s given audiences some astonishing performances, this is a career-best from Blanchett.
WHO WILL WIN: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once
If you’d asked me to pick a winner exactly one month ago I would have said Blanchett ten out of ten times. However, Yeoh and EEAAO have slowly built-up steam as March 12th approaches. If it weren’t for Blanchett, I’d say Yeoh was a lock. Coming off a SAG win, I think Yeoh is going to ride the momentum to Oscar gold. It’s between Yeoh and Blanchett right now but I give the slight edge to Yeoh by the narrowest of margins.
Austin Butler for Elvis
Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser for The Whale
Paul Mescal for Aftersun
Bill Nighy for Living
WHO SHOULD AND WILL WIN: Brendan Fraser for The Whale
I mentioned there were two major categories locked among the Big Six, and this is the second. I don’t see a universe where Fraser doesn’t win the award. Not only is it an amazing, layered, nuanced, compassionate, and empathetic performance, it also involved an amazing layer of physicality. For that reason, I give the edge to Fraser. Just like Quan, this is an amazing story with Fraser lost in the Hollywood wilderness for several years. As I mentioned in my review, I didn’t think Fraser had this kind of performance in him but here we are. It’s amazing to think that two people from Encino Man are going to have Oscars come Monday morning.
Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
Todd Field for Tar
Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness
WHO SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Daniels—as they are often referred to—pulled off something amazing: they made a quirky, funny, compassionate, and weirdly awesome film about the multiverse revolving around an Asian family. And yet somehow, whoever you are or whatever background you come from, this movie comes off as excessively relatable. The Daniels made a far superior film about the multiverse than a movie released the same year that actually had “multiverse” in the title! That’s no small feat. There’s no doubt in my mind that they should win it.
WHO WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
I may be delusional but I’m calling this the upset of the night. After decades of excellence, we’ve gotten so used to the consistent greatness of Spielberg that it’s almost become trivial. We expect that whenever he releases a film he’ll be nominated for an Oscar. Do you understand how insane that sounds? How many great directors over the years have never even been nominated for an Oscar let alone won? Although I wasn’t a huge fan of The Fabelmans, Spielberg’s direction is damn near perfect. The pacing is tight and focused, he maximizes every shot from cinematographer Janusz Kaminski, and draws out the best in every actor involved in this film, especially newcomer and lead Gabriel LaBelle. Hard to believe Spielberg only has two under his belt but I suspect he’s about to receive a third.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin
Sadly, The Northman was not nominated for (checks notes) anything otherwise I would have said that’s the movie that should win. However, you could do a lot worse than Martin McDonagh’s lyrical rumination about friendship, grief, depression, and the desire to change. Gleeson and Farrell are wondrous in this movie, a film rife with black humor, devastating moments, and gorgeous cinematography. While not McDonagh’s best work, I nonetheless adored this film and believe it should take home the gold come Oscar night.
WHO WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
EEAAO has been tearing it up with each successive awards show and Oscar night is going to be no different. The Daniels made an excellent film about how we struggle with family, children, spouses, and the road not taken. The film manages to be a true immigrant story while simultaneously sporting concepts that are almost all universally relatable. The battle of nihilism versus existentialism is a very real, tangible thing that exists and not just in the universe of EEAAO. I hate to sound cliché and say this movie is going to be a win for cinemas but it is.
And that my friends are this year’s picks! Be sure to follow me this Sunday night at 8 PM EST as I will be live tweeting the Oscars via the Movie Chumps Twitter account. Just look for Movie_Chumps on that fantastical Hell site and you will find me. Until then my lovelies!